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Climate, rain changes could signal cholera outbreaks

Reyburn R. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2011;84:862-869.

June 02, 2011
1 min read

A mere 1° C increase in the average monthly minimum temperature or a 200-mL increase in monthly rainfall in a particular demographic area predicted a spike in cholera cases in that area, according to a recent study published online.

Researchers from the International Vaccine Institute in Seoul, South Korea, looked at several years of monthly cholera disease surveillance reports from Zanzibar, Tanzania, which enabled them to see when the disease was at a relatively normal level and when it spiked to epidemic proportions. Then, they looked at a wide variety of monthly environmental data for the same period, including rainfall totals, high and low temperatures, humidity, and sea surface temperatures. When they compared the data, the researchers concluded that cholera outbreaks were most closely associated with a rise in minimum average temperatures and average rainfall levels.

The researchers said their study represents an advance in developing a forecasting system for cholera outbreaks because there are many environmental factors known to contribute to cholera infections, but it has been difficult to single out which ones are the most important and should be monitored.

Also, the fact that cholera cases doubled after only a small increase in the average minimum temperature could be a particularly troubling sign. In the study, the doubling occurred when the average minimum temperature rose 23·C/73·F to 24·C/75·F. The study researchers said climatologists predict that the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could cause average temperatures globally to increase from 1.4·C to 5.8·C during the next 100 years.

The researchers said their work eventually could allow public health authorities to anticipate outbreaks and move to intervene in areas where cholera is common.

Disclosure: Funding for this study was provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through the Cholera Vaccine Initiative (CHOVI) Program, administered by the International Vaccine Institute (IVI), and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA).

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