In the Journals

Pulmonary fibrosis prediction models assess short-term mortality in SSc-ILD

Several mortality-risk prediction models used in assessing mortality at 1-year in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, also may be a viable option in gauging short-term mortality in patients with systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease, according to study results.

“We show that the modified du Bois index has good discrimination and calibration for the prediction of 1-year mortality in [systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD)], and that discrimination is also acceptable for the [Composite Physiologic Index (CPI)], [interstitial lung disease-gender, age, physiology (ILD-GAP)] and original du Bois index,” Christopher J. Ryerson, MD, assistant professor in the James Hogg Research Centre at the University of British Columbia, and colleagues wrote.

Ryerson and colleagues studied 156 patients with SSc-ILD and used four baseline risk prediction models normally used to assess mortality in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. The researchers utilized the CPI, the ILD-GAP Index, the du Bois index and the modified du Bois index to estimate 1-year mortality rates in SSc-ILD.

Each index accurately predicted patient 1-year mortality, with the modified du Bois index showing the best discrimination (AUROC curve = 0.84; P = .19). The AUROC curve ranged from 0.77 to 0.81 for the other models.

The researchers acknowledged further research for predictions is warranted.

“Additional studies are required to determine how to translate these models into specific mortality estimates in SSc-ILD and how these estimates should then be used in clinical practice,” the researchers wrote. “Future studies are also needed to determine whether novel mortality risk prediction tools can substantially improve prognostication in patients with SSc-ILD.”

Disclosure: The researchers report no relevant financial disclosures.

Several mortality-risk prediction models used in assessing mortality at 1-year in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, also may be a viable option in gauging short-term mortality in patients with systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease, according to study results.

“We show that the modified du Bois index has good discrimination and calibration for the prediction of 1-year mortality in [systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD)], and that discrimination is also acceptable for the [Composite Physiologic Index (CPI)], [interstitial lung disease-gender, age, physiology (ILD-GAP)] and original du Bois index,” Christopher J. Ryerson, MD, assistant professor in the James Hogg Research Centre at the University of British Columbia, and colleagues wrote.

Ryerson and colleagues studied 156 patients with SSc-ILD and used four baseline risk prediction models normally used to assess mortality in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. The researchers utilized the CPI, the ILD-GAP Index, the du Bois index and the modified du Bois index to estimate 1-year mortality rates in SSc-ILD.

Each index accurately predicted patient 1-year mortality, with the modified du Bois index showing the best discrimination (AUROC curve = 0.84; P = .19). The AUROC curve ranged from 0.77 to 0.81 for the other models.

The researchers acknowledged further research for predictions is warranted.

“Additional studies are required to determine how to translate these models into specific mortality estimates in SSc-ILD and how these estimates should then be used in clinical practice,” the researchers wrote. “Future studies are also needed to determine whether novel mortality risk prediction tools can substantially improve prognostication in patients with SSc-ILD.”

Disclosure: The researchers report no relevant financial disclosures.