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Simpler forecasting models do not account for variability, uncertainty

April 1, 2015

In an article recently published in Proceedings of the Royal Society B, researchers argued that many of the simpler statistical models used to forecast the spread of infectious diseases may not appropriately account for random elements or uncertainty, and thus resulted in inflated early estimates of Ebola virus disease transmission.

“In the early days of the Ebola outbreak, a lot of people got into the forecasting business,” Aaron A. King, PhD, of the University of Michigan, said in a press release. “They did it using appealingly simple mathematical models, and the result was a series of warnings that alerted the world, quite rightly, to the seriousness of the situation … but in the end, most of those predictions turned out to be overstated.”

In the Journals

Genomic data further indicate association between enterovirus D68, neurological illness

April 1, 2015
Extensive genomic data recently published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases supported the association between enterovirus D68 and acute flaccid myelitis. “In…
In the Journals

In HIV patients, specific behaviors linked to S. Aureus colonization, SSTI

April 1, 2015
Specific behaviors, not HIV-related factors, increase the risk for Staphylococcus aureus colonization and subsequent skin and soft tissue infections, according to…
In the Journals

HIV self-testing may be cost-effective in low-income countries

March 31, 2015
The introduction of self-testing for HIV in low-income countries would likely offer health benefits to those communities and may also save costs, according to recent…

BioMed Central retracts 43 articles that used fabricated reviewers

March 31, 2015
Following an investigation which revealed attempts to manipulate the peer review process, medical and scientific publisher BioMed Central has retracted 43 articles that…
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